\u0130ktisatbank, 15 Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019e ili\u015fkin piyasa analiz raporunu yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Raporda, “Alt\u0131n ve Bitcoin y\u00fckseliyor, borsalar rekorda. TCMB faiz indirdi, g\u00f6zler CHP’de\u201d ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131.
\u0130ktisatbank’\u0131n 15 Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019e ili\u015fkin G\u00fcnl\u00fck Piyasa Analiz ve Yorumu \u015fu \u015fekilde:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ABD’de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6zler bu hafta sonu\u00e7lanacak Fed’in ola\u011fan Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. Fed’in dokuz ay sonra ilk kez faiz indirimine gidece\u011fini bu toplant\u0131da, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra tam istihdam g\u00f6revi de olan Fed’in, istihdam piyasas\u0131nda ya\u015fanan bozulmaya kar\u015f\u0131 ne kadar kayg\u0131 ile yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Karar ard\u0131ndan mikrofon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na ge\u00e7ecek Ba\u015fkan Powell\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve \u00fcyelerin tahminlerini g\u00f6steren me\u015fhur nokta grafik (projeksiyonlar) Fed’in gelece\u011fe dair beklentilerini \u015fekillendirerek piyasalar adeta kutup y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 misali y\u00f6n tayin edecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu sabah itibariyle, vadeli kontratlar, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirime %97 ihtimal tan\u0131rken, 50 baz puanl\u0131k daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ad\u0131m\u0131 ise %3 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Sene sonuna kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 toplant\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcnde ise 69 baz puan faiz indirimi bekleniyor (\u00fc\u00e7 adet 25 baz puan). Tarihsel olarak 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirimlerin \u00e7o\u011funlukla resesyon d\u00f6nemlerinde geldi\u011fini hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Bu nedenle, daha sert bir indirimin Fed\u2019in ekonomik gidi\u015fattan ciddi \u015fekilde endi\u015fe duydu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce T\u00fcrkiye cephesinde ise haftaya CHP davas\u0131 ile ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z. Karar\u0131n ne y\u00f6nde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kestirmek olduk\u00e7a zor. Siyasette 24 saatin \u00e7ok uzun bir s\u00fcre oldu\u011funu rahmetli ve kurt siyaset\u00e7i Demirel’den pek\u00e2l\u00e2 biliyoruz. Kulislere g\u00f6re kayyum ve mutlak butlan (ge\u00e7ersizlik) ihtimali fazla g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, erteleme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir karar da gelebilir. Duru\u015fman\u0131n saat 10:00’da g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini not edelim. Bizler ekonomist olsak da, i\u015fimiz gere\u011fi sosyal olaylar\u0131 da anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. Son haftalarda hukuk\u00ee olaylar\u0131 da anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsak da, pek de ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fumuzu s\u00f6yleyemeyiz. E\u011fer biz olup biten tam olarak anlayam\u0131yorsak, veya \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6remiyorsak, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l anlay\u0131p TL ve TL cinsi varl\u0131klara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyece\u011fiz?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
USDTRY kuru yeni haftan\u0131n ilk i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcne 41,30’lu seviyelerinde ba\u015fl\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye’nin yabanc\u0131 indinde risklerini yans\u0131tan 5 y\u0131l vadeli CDS risk primi haftay\u0131 266 baz puan ile neredeyse son alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde tamamlad\u0131. TCMB’nin swap h\u00e2ri\u00e7 net yabanc\u0131 para pozisyonu 11 Eyl\u00fcl val\u00f6rl\u00fc i\u015flemlerde 41,9 milyar dolara geriledi. Siyasi riskleri artmadan \u00f6nce s\u00f6z konusu man\u015fet rakam 48,5 milyar dolar seviyesinde idi. \u0130ki rakam\u0131n aras\u0131nda (azalma) fark her ne kadar 6,5 milyar dolar olsa da, alt\u0131n rezervlerinde ya\u015fanan de\u011ferleme etkisi de matemati\u011fe kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, rezervlerde y\u0131pranman\u0131n biraz daha fazla oldu\u011funu not edelim. Yine de, 19 Mart tarihinde beklenmeyen yumruk kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalanan TCMB’nin bu sefer her ihtimale kar\u015f\u0131 daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funu, kur cephesinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir volatiliteye izin vermeyecek kadar elinin de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu not edelim. Piyasalar\u0131n sevimsiz bulaca\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoda ise tahvil ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015flara sahne olma ihtimali var ki o cenahta da bu beklentinin fiyatlamas\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bug\u00fcn b\u00fcltenimizin man\u015fetini 12 Dev Adam\u2019la s\u00fcslemek isterdim. D\u00fcn ak\u015fam ma\u00e7\u0131 izlerken, \u201cnas\u0131l bir ba\u015fl\u0131k atsam?\u201d diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken, neredeyse 38 dakika \u00f6nde g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz m\u00fccadelede son iki dakikada kontrol\u00fc kaybedip Avrupa ikincisi olduk. Yirmi d\u00f6rt y\u0131l aradan sonra yeniden finale y\u00fckselmi\u015f, \u00fcstelik nama\u011flup gelmi\u015f bir milli tak\u0131m\u0131 kutlamadan ge\u00e7mek olmaz. Erik Dal\u0131n\u0131 bu kez voleybol tak\u0131m\u0131m\u0131zda oldu\u011fu gibi sonraki zaferlere saklad\u0131k diyelim. Spor da hayat gibi; hatalardan \u00f6\u011freniyor, d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yerden kalkmay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131yoruz. Devam!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ise, Uluslararas\u0131 Kredi Derecelendirme Kurulu\u015fu Fitch, Fransa’n\u0131n kredi notunu A+’ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Kararda siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, b\u00fcy\u00fcyen kamu borcu ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kontrol etme zorluklar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, bu ad\u0131m euro b\u00f6lgesinin ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisine dair yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Yeni Ba\u015fbakan Lecornu, derin b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f parlamentodan 2026 b\u00fct\u00e7esini ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in \u00e7abalarken, not indirimi di\u011fer kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da benzer hamleler yapmaya te\u015fvik etmesi h\u00e2linde, Frans\u0131z tahvillerinde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n derinle\u015febilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Frans\u0131z 10 ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvilleri haftan\u0131n son i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc sert sat\u0131\u015flara sahne oldu. Ortak para birimi EUR ise, Fransa riskine ra\u011fmen, haftay\u0131 dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan da destek bularak 1,1730 seviyelerinde tamamlamak suretiyle son alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek haftal\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ka\u011f\u0131t para sistemine y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvensizlik ve bor\u00e7 \u00e7a\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bir numaral\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 h\u00e2line gelen k\u0131ymetli madenler ise iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerini korumaya devam ettiklerini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son g\u00fcnlerde sosyal medyada s\u0131k\u00e7a payla\u015f\u0131lan Bloomberg grafi\u011finde, 1980 y\u0131l\u0131nda 850 dolar seviyesini test eden alt\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn\u00fcn paras\u0131yla (enflasyonla d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f) yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,600 dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn\u00fczd\u00fcr. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 45 y\u0131l \u00f6nce ABD, \u00e7\u00f6ken dolar, kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyon ve resesyon ile tarihinin en \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinden birini ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131 yeniden 3,600 dolar seviyelerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek o tarihi zirvenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda ve y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana da yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerine y\u00f6nelmesi ve enflasyonun da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali vermemesi h\u00e2linde, alt\u0131n ve di\u011fer reel varl\u0131klardaki mevcut bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alt\u0131n haftay\u0131 3,642 dolar seviyesine y\u00fckselerek t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek haftal\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yaparak tamamlad\u0131. G\u00f6z bebe\u011fimiz g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ise 14 y\u0131l\u0131n yeni en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olarak 42 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden haftal\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 (sene ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re %46 y\u00fckseli\u015f). Gelinen seviyeler bug\u00fcn y\u00fcksek ve g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir! L\u00e2kin, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bug\u00fcn\u00fcn seviyelerinin olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fiyatlar\u0131n \u015fimdiden \u00e7ok daha yukar\u0131da olmamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni ise \u00e7o\u011fu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz ka\u011f\u0131t para sistemine y\u00f6nelik ba\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fck reseti g\u00f6remedi\u011fini, g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131nda ise ‘panik’ al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bizler \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcredir korumaya devam etti\u011fimiz uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z, haftan\u0131n son i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc bir kademe daha g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdik. Alt\u0131n\u0131n, \u201cbir daha d\u00fc\u015fmeyecek\u201d inanc\u0131na herkesin kap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme kadar ya da \u00e7ok sevdi\u011fim ve sayg\u0131 duydu\u011fum, ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fck rol\u00fc ve eme\u011fi olan de\u011ferli teknik analiz hocam Ali Per\u015fembe’nin de dedi\u011fi \u00fczere “budala sendromu” ba\u015flayana y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Geldi\u011fimiz noktada budala sendromunun \u00e7ok uza\u011f\u0131nda oldu\u011fumuzun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmem gerekiyor. Teknik m\u00e2n\u00e2da, alt\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede 3,730 dolar devam\u0131nda ise 4,250 dolar seviyesini hedefliyoruz (bak\u0131n\u0131z grafik). G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ise emin ad\u0131mlarla 50 dolar zirvesine do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ABD’de en b\u00fcy\u00fck 500 \u015firketin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc S&P500 endeksi tarihinde ilk kez 6,600 seviyesini test ederek Trump’\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarifeler ile dip yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nisan 2025’e g\u00f6re %36 y\u00fckseldi. Bu performans, ABD borsalar\u0131 i\u00e7in son be\u015f ay\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ralli d\u00f6nemlerinden biri olarak kayda ge\u00e7ti. S&P 500 bu y\u0131l genelinde %12 y\u00fckselerek k\u0131ymetli madenlerin etkileyici performans\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a gerisinde kalsa da, Oracle hisselerinin tek g\u00fcnde %36 de\u011fer kazanarak neredeyse 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k piyasa de\u011ferine ula\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 teknoloji hisselerine olan ilgi yeniden \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6zellikle, Fed’in yakla\u015fan faiz indirimlerinin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 ile hisse senetleri haftan\u0131n son i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc rekorlar tazelerken, yeni g\u00fcn ve hafta ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda, Pasifik’in di\u011fer ucunda, Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli iyimser bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00f6sterge endeks Tokyo ve \u015eangay borsalar\u0131 %1’e yak\u0131n y\u00fckselirken, di\u011fer b\u00f6lge borsalar\u0131nda kazan\u0131mlar daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. ABD borsalar\u0131n\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ise hafif de olsa y\u00fckseli\u015f iste\u011fi oldu\u011funu not edelim. \u00c7in\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan zay\u0131f sanayi \u00fcretimi ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131rken, ABD-\u00c7in ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ise \u0130spanya’n\u0131n ba\u015fkenti Madrid\u2019de devam ediyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 OPEC+ \u00fcretimi ve zay\u0131f talep kayg\u0131lar\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselirken, kripto paralar cephesinde ise Bitcoin 115bin dolar civar\u0131nda yatay, XRP ise 3 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerine y\u00fckselmesi ard\u0131ndan zemini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu hafta Fed’in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da indirim yapmas\u0131 beklenirken, \u0130ngiltere ve Japonya Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ise politika faizini sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nepal\u2019da h\u00fck\u00fbmeti deviren yolsuzluk kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 gen\u00e7lik hareketi ard\u0131ndan, \u0130ngiltere cephesi de hafta sonu b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketlili\u011fe sahne oldu. Ba\u015fbakan Starmer, Londra\u2019da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011fc\u0131 aktivist Tommy Robinson\u2019\u0131n d\u00fczenledi\u011fi ve milyonlarca ki\u015finin kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7men kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcy\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, herkesin bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l protesto hakk\u0131 oldu\u011funu ancak polise sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n kabul edilemez oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. G\u00f6steride 26 polis yaralan\u0131rken 25 ki\u015fi g\u00f6zalt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131. Starmer, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fc, \u00e7e\u015fitlilik ve sayg\u0131 \u00fczerine kurulu bir \u00fclke oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, bayra\u011f\u0131n \u015fiddet ve nefretin de\u011fil bu de\u011ferlerin sembol\u00fc oldu\u011funu ifade etti. G\u00f6\u00e7menlik, artan s\u0131\u011f\u0131nma ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve Man\u015f Denizi\u2019nden gelen rekor say\u0131da g\u00f6\u00e7men nedeniyle \u00fclkenin en tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 siyasi g\u00fcndemi h\u00e2line gelmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ktisatbank, 15 Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019e ili\u015fkin piyasa analiz raporunu yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Raporda, “Alt\u0131n ve Bitcoin y\u00fckseliyor, borsalar rekorda. TCMB faiz indirdi, g\u00f6zler CHP’de\u201d ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130ktisatbank’\u0131n 15 Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019e ili\u015fkin G\u00fcnl\u00fck Piyasa Analiz ve Yorumu \u015fu \u015fekilde: ABD’de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6zler bu hafta sonu\u00e7lanacak Fed’in ola\u011fan Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. Fed’in dokuz ay sonra […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31400,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[81],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-gundem"],"yoast_head":"\n