\u0130ktisatbank, 4 A\u011fustos 2025\u2019e ili\u015fkin piyasa analiz raporunu yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Raporda, “\u0130stihdam raporu sonras\u0131 dolarda d\u00fczeltme hareketi tamamland\u0131\u201d ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131.
\u0130ktisatbank’\u0131n 4 A\u011fustos 2025’e ili\u015fkin G\u00fcnl\u00fck Piyasa Analiz ve Yorumu \u015fu \u015fekilde:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ABD’de her ay\u0131n ilk cumas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanan istihdam raporu beklentilere oranla olduk\u00e7a zay\u0131f geldi. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bordrolu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 104bin ki\u015fi art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi beklenirken, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 73bin oldu. Ge\u00e7en aylara ili\u015fkin veriler de keskin bir \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. \u0130stihdam verilerinin beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a gerisinde a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 \u00fczerine, Ba\u015fkan Trump, verileri haz\u0131rlayan \u0130statistik Kurumu Ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6revden ald\u0131. Trump, raporda yaln\u0131zca 73 bin yeni i\u015f yarat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirtilmesini ve \u00f6nceki iki aya ait verilerde toplamda 258 bin ki\u015filik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u201chileli\u201d olarak nitelendirdi. S\u00f6z konusu ataman\u0131n eski Ba\u015fkan Biden d\u00f6neminde yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan Trump, yerine daha yetkin bir ismin getirilmesi gerekti\u011fini savundu. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131n da emekli edilmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu geli\u015fmeler, ekonomik verilerin tarafs\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feleri art\u0131r\u0131rken, g\u00fcvenilir veri \u00fcretiminin siyasi tart\u0131\u015fmalara konu olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta sonu\u00e7lanan ola\u011fan faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda karara \u015ferh d\u00fc\u015fen ve 25 baz puan faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullanan iki \u00fcyeyi Trump\u2019\u0131n atam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlayacaks\u0131n\u0131z. G\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 2026 Ocak ay\u0131nda dolacak FOMC \u00fcyesi Kugler ise istifas\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Bo\u015falan koltu\u011fa atama yapacak olan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130statistik Kurumu yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Fed cephesinde de \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc adam\u0131n\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not edelim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Zay\u0131f sonu\u00e7lanan istihdam verisi ard\u0131ndan imalat sanayi ISM endeksinin ve Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksinin de zay\u0131f sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131 kafalar\u0131 iyice kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Keza daha ge\u00e7en hafta Powell’\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 ard\u0131ndan ekonominin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde peki\u015fen izlenimin yerini h\u0131zla faiz indirim beklentisi al\u0131rken, piyasa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn de olduk\u00e7a sert bir \u015fekilde y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini not edelim. Fed’in yine ge\u00e7 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde beliren endi\u015fe ABD Dolar\u0131’na de\u011fer kayb\u0131 olarak yans\u0131d\u0131. Haftan\u0131n son i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda 1,14 seviyesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc test eden EURUSD paritesi haftay\u0131 1,1590 seviyesinden tamamlad\u0131. 1,1560 seviyesinden a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z EURUSD k\u0131sa pozisyonumuz, iz s\u00fcren zarar kes emri ile 1,1460 seviyesinden k\u00e2r ile kapand\u0131. 3,270 dolar seviyesine kadar inen alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131 %2’nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015fle haftay\u0131 3,362 dolar seviyesinden tamamlad\u0131. FOMC sonras\u0131 Powell’\u0131n verdi\u011fi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k s\u0131nav\u0131 ve dolarda ba\u015flayan toparlanma hareketi de k\u0131sa soluklu kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6nde gelen para birimlerine g\u00f6re dolar\u0131n de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren sepet kur DXY haftan\u0131n son i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc %1’e yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlarken, vadeli kontratlar sene sonuna kadar Fed’den 65 baz puan faiz indirimi beklemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Trump’\u0131n bu noktadan sonra Powell’a daha fazla y\u00fcklenece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. E\u011fer Fed ger\u00e7ekten pandemi d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu \u00fczere enflasyon ge\u00e7ici diyerek politika hatas\u0131n\u0131 bu sefer de oranlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarak tekrarl\u0131yorsa, h\u0131zl\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek montanl\u0131 faiz indirimlerine ba\u015fvurabilece\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ABD’den haftan\u0131n son i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc gelen zay\u0131f makro ekonomik veriler sonras\u0131 artan faiz indirim beklentileri veya yukar\u0131da da de\u011findi\u011fimiz \u00fczere Fed’in hata yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde endi\u015felere ilaveten Trump’\u0131n bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bozdu. Bitcoin 115bin dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkarken, ABD borsalar\u0131 haftan\u0131n son i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc %2 civar\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla tamamlad\u0131. Yeni g\u00fcn ve hafta ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda Pasifik’in di\u011fer ucunda karma\u015f\u0131k bir seyrin h\u00e2kim oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00f6sterge endeks Tokyo borsas\u0131 %1,5 d\u00fc\u015ferken, Kore borsas\u0131 ise %1 y\u00fckseldi. ABD borsalar\u0131n\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ise hafif de olsa art\u0131lar dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrkiye cephesinde ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi olan \u0130SO imalat sanayi PMI verisi Temmuz ay\u0131nda 45,9 de\u011ferini alarak son dokuz ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferini ald\u0131. PMI verisinde 50 e\u015fik de\u011ferinin alt\u0131 daralma, \u00fcst\u00fc ise y\u00fckselmeye olarak okunuyor. Sanayi cephesinden sessizli\u011fin i\u00e7inde adeta bir bek\u00e7inin hayk\u0131r\u0131\u015f\u0131 misali \u00e7arklar durma noktas\u0131na gelirken, otorite, talebi azalt\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6nde politikalar izlemeyi tercih ediyor. USDTRY kuru hafif\u00e7e y\u00fckselerek 40,65 seviyesine gelirken, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki azalman\u0131n bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak 5 y\u0131l vadeli CDS risk primini son birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde 15 baz puan kadar yukar\u0131ya giderek 288 baz puana y\u00fckseldi. Hafta genelinde %1 y\u00fckselen ve teknik m\u00e2n\u00e2da \u00f6nemli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 10,750 puan seviyesine gelen B\u0130ST100 ana endeksine, tahvil faizler de e\u015flik etti. ABD’de g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc maj\u00f6r bir \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fmesi sonras\u0131 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 baz puan gerilemesine i\u00e7eride T\u00fcrk tahvilleri de etti. TCMB sonras\u0131 TLREF son g\u00fcnlerde politika faizinin hemen alt\u0131nda %42,68 seviyelerinde yatayla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hafta \u0130TO, \u0130stanbul b\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verileri a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re \u0130stanbul’da T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %2,6 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130TO serisi ile T\u00dc\u0130K aras\u0131nda seri fark\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in korelasyon kaybolsa da, yine de bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Temmuz ay\u0131 enflasyonunun g\u00f6receli olarak y\u00fcksek gelece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere TCMB bunun sinyalini \u00f6nceden vermi\u015f ve ge\u00e7ici olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015fti. Bu arada bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak veriye ili\u015fkin beklentinin %2,4 d\u00fczeyinde oldu\u011funu not edelim. B\u00f6yle bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu %34 seviyesine \u00e7ekecektir. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ktisatbank, 4 A\u011fustos 2025\u2019e ili\u015fkin piyasa analiz raporunu yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Raporda, “\u0130stihdam raporu sonras\u0131 dolarda d\u00fczeltme hareketi tamamland\u0131\u201d ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130ktisatbank’\u0131n 4 A\u011fustos 2025’e ili\u015fkin G\u00fcnl\u00fck Piyasa Analiz ve Yorumu \u015fu \u015fekilde: ABD’de her ay\u0131n ilk cumas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanan istihdam raporu beklentilere oranla olduk\u00e7a zay\u0131f geldi. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bordrolu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 104bin ki\u015fi art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi beklenirken, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20495,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[85],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-dunya"],"yoast_head":"\n